RSnake Report 20260920

Moscow refinery hit, Saudi Arabia seeks help against Houthis, etc

September 20, 2026

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Hello, and thanks for reading! I am writing you from Munich, Germany today. And I am quite jet lagged at the moment. The editor and I are here for Oktoberfest. I go to a marketing conference here every year. Why would a security guy to go to a marketing conference you might ask? Well it turns out high end marketers and CMOs want to know how they can mess up their competitor's marketing efforts. Or, worst case, how their own marketing efforts could get thwarted by a hacker. I am an honorary attendee at this point so I no longer have to speak, though I do run a "blackhat shed" where I talk about what the hackers are up to and scare the natives. See if you can spot me in this old photo... back when I had no beard and hair! If you know what you're looking at, this is the who's who of Internet marketing.

In Russia/Ukraine News, Ukrainian drones attacked the Kapotnya oil refinery in Moscow, damaging the AVT-6 unit with a capacity of 7.8 million tons per year, the KUPN unit with a capacity of 6.86 million tons per year, and an isomerization unit used for AI-92/95 gasoline production. The AVT-6 distillation unit and the isomerization unit sustained damage. The facility supplied 40-50 percent of Moscow-region gasoline and diesel and provided aviation fuel to the capital's airports. The refinery's vertical layout made strikes more effective. Russia's fuel crisis is about to get worse after the strike and Moscow's in particular.

Ukraine announced the first combat use of the FP-7 Pelican short-range ballistic missile during the same operation. The Pelican carries a 150 kg warhead and has a reported range of about 200 km. Moscow lies beyond that range, so long-range drones most likely struck the refinery itself. Inserted media

One of the things that was interesting about this refinery strike is the design of the refinery is such that it was intended to be space efficient, and therefore very vulnerable, because it's all stacked on top of itself as this diagram attempts to show. Inserted media

And this is what it actually looks like when it is not on fire to give you some sense of why this is much worse than a normal strike on a refinery.

The Syzran refinery was also struck earlier this week. These are both nasty strikes and flies in the face of what Trump said and then doubled down on regarding how this is impacting fuel prices in the US. Inserted media

The Modern Warehouse Technologies facility in Sofyino, Moscow region, burned down after the same wave of strikes. The Sofyino logistics park covering roughly 826,000 to 850,000 square meters was also engulfed, affecting distribution centers for Lamoda, Yandex, Wildberries, and Bosch/Siemens. Inserted media

Ukrainian forces destroyed Russian trucks carrying ammunition, provisions, fuel, and personnel 120 km behind the front line in the Lyman sector. The combat losses of the enemy show tons of vehicle losses on top of the normal levels of troop losses, and analysts note that outsiders must not violate our blocks. The combat losses continue to accumulate with vehicle losses exceeding previous levels by quite a margin. Hundreds of vehicles lost... in a day? This loss ratio of trucking is pretty staggering. 🤯

I do think the lack of logistics is having a pretty big impact. Ukrainian forces crossed the Zherebets River behind Lyman as Russian troops retreated amid reports of collapse in the sector. The Russians have controlled the western side of the river for quite a while. Prof. Bonk 🇺🇦 Perverse & Unintended Consequences

Prof. Bonk 🇺🇦 Perverse & Unintended Consequences

Lately I have been discussing the new jet powered Gerans. The problem is that Ukraine didn't really have a high speed interceptor. However the new Ukrainian STING S high-speed FPV drone intercepted a Russian Geran-5 kamikaze drone. It's good to see these things out there because this will be a bigger threat, I suspect. Drone Wars

Russia is building underground workshops at the Alabuga drone factory in Tatarstan. Satellite imagery shows 42,000 square meters of underground space already completed for future production. The facility is also expanding surface buildings and adding protective structures around the site. It's going to be very difficult to attack these with traditional munitions, so the supply line feeding it and taking finished drones from it will be the place to target... where they are most vulnerable, basically.

Look at these stacks of drones too. It's really impressive how fast these factories have become, and the output is impressive.

Russian Urals crude is trading at 121 dollars per barrel while WTI and Brent prices are reported near 100 dollars. Remember that Russia doesn't have the capacity to refine this so it has to ship it oversees for refining. But who is going to take Russian oil and risk US sanctions? Pretty much China is it, and to a far lesser extent, Iran was until recently. JustDario

In the latest NATO Article V news... a Russian drone struck a field near a village 10 km from Moldova’s capital city Chișinău. The impact occurred in an agricultural area outside the village limits. Of course no one will do anything about it. But the risk here is that it is really testing NATO's ability to detect an intercept drones here, even if it's not intended to do any damage. Visegrád 24

In related Russian drone news we move into European News, where a drone discovered near Wunstorf Air Base matches the model linked to the suspected Russian-linked attack at Leipzig/Halle Airport, with both containing similar 3D-printed components not normally available commercially. Germany’s Federal Prosecutor has taken over the case with the BKA leading the investigation, though no explosives have been found on the Wunstorf drone so far. Luxembourg Airport suspended all operations due to drone activity, resulting in at least twelve inbound flights being diverted to Liège, Cologne, Frankfurt-Hahn, Brussels, and Frankfurt, with others delayed. I am glad we didn't route through those airports. What a mess! Coffe Report

Russia’s Putin envoy Kirill Dmitriev and Germany’s AfD leaders are preparing talks on restoring Russian gas supplies to Germany, including a possible reopening of Nord Stream pipelines, potentially in 2027 if a Russia-Ukraine peace framework is reached. French President Emmanuel Macron announced he will convene a G7 meeting in coming weeks to discuss potential releases of strategic oil stockpiles amid soaring energy prices from the war in Ukraine and Middle East conflict. This makes a lot of sense to soften the offramp after the war. We don't want to discourage Russia from seeing dollars after the war concludes. Clash Report

In what can only be seen as an attempt to push on the United States, Canada has been invited to become the first associate member of the European Union, with the EU seeking to bring the relationship to the highest level possible. There is no such thing as an associate member, so there are a lot of open questions about this one. NXT EU

The United States secured permanent military rights in Greenland through a deal with Denmark and Greenland, granting permanent access, basing, and overflight rights plus the ability to build new installations without further approval, with the agreement designed to survive potential Greenland independence. Of course we already had an agreement made in 1951. The advantage of this agreement is it gives us the ability to deploy any security tech we want anywhere we want without permission, which is a big difference. Fox News Politics

In South East Asia News, A former U.S. soldier acted as a cutout for Chinese intelligence to obtain material from Joint Base Lewis-McChord. Former Army soldier Ruoyu Duan pleaded guilty in Oregon federal court to conspiracy to gather and transmit national defense information. From 2021 to 2025 he recruited active-duty troops to remove sensitive files and hardware, with payments sent through PayPal from China and labeled as tuition or lessons. One soldier supplied technical material on Bradley, Stryker, and HIMARS systems while another sold an encrypted military computer and SECRET-labeled hard drives. Oh, China! UnveiledChina

In a rather embarrassing situation, a shipment of F-35 fighter jet parts was rerouted to Hong Kong this summer and has since vanished. Congress and the Department of Defense are investigating the incident amid the possibility that China may now have access to the highly-classified program. Apparently one of the components was a stealth coated cockpit canopy, which I am sure the Chinese will enjoy testing thoroughly. Not good.

China’s gasoline and diesel inventories are declining as refiners face a tightening domestic market. Gasoline stockpiles at state-owned suppliers fell 2.9 percent last week to the lowest level since prior to 2023, while diesel holdings dropped 2.4 percent to a 15-month low, prompting traders to withhold supplies and raising the chance of renewed export curbs. This is really bad for China who needs a pretty healthy stockpile if they are going to invade Taiwan in 2027. Giovanni Staunovo🛢

Supertanker rates for routes to China have reached record highs. The Baltic Exchange VLCC benchmark for the Middle East to China route hit $800,000 a day, roughly 18 times normal earnings, while the newly tracked Gulf of Oman to East Asia route reached $386,000 a day. The cost of moving 2 million barrels from West Africa to China also set an all-time high of $23.59 per barrel. Jack Prandelli

Meanwhile, China’s oil prices are surging to multi-decade highs. Chinese refineries are returning to high operating rates after earlier periods of reduced activity, adding further pressure on already tight global supply chains. This makes sense, because the world needs more oil and they are no different.

Chinese oil demand has weakened according to recent data, which will no doubt send shockwaves throughout the Chinese economy. Chinese oil demand is genuinely soft with a 5 mb/d decline attributed to price-driven destruction, displacement by new energy vehicles, run cuts and inventory drawdowns. Refiners drew down product inventories more aggressively than expected, forcing higher runs to stabilize tank levels.

A US Gulf to Asia tanker was offered $29.5 million for one voyage after freight rates climbed from levels that rarely exceeded $45,000 a day. A supertanker rarely earned more than $45,000 a day before this war. The single voyage fee equals roughly $15 per barrel before war-risk fees, meaning about one dollar in seven of a $100 crude cargo now goes to transport instead of the oil itself. Katusa Research

However, the energy shortfall has to be dealt with from somewhere. China is increasing coal output to address energy security concerns. The NDRC, NEA, and NMSA issued a joint notice directing key provinces to maximize stable coal production in response to growing threats to energy supplies. This will almost certainly destroy any dreams for the green-initiative types in China and elsewhere. China is by far the world's largest polluter and it's about to get pretty bad again. Francesco Sassi

New video shows a China Coast Guard cutter ramming a Philippine BFAR. China Coast Guard vessel CCG-21585 rammed BRP Datu Magat Salamat north of Abad Santos Shoal. The collision occurred at 09°34.445'N, 116°53.714'E, roughly 54 NM from Palawan and inside the Philippine exclusive economic zone. The BFAR vessel sustained bent and broken railings, deformed metal stanchions, displaced deck fixtures and scattered debris on its starboard side. The Philippine Coast Guard directed surface and air assets to assist the crew after the incident. fishing-support boat 100 km from the Philippines. Chinese land is 850 km away from the location of the event. China wanted to claim it was the fishermen's fault, but the video shows the Coast Guard ship steering into the ship even when the fishermen are ahead of the Coast Guard vessel. Whoops! 🤡 Jay Tarriela

China unveils autonomous robotic fish for underwater surveillance as part of its expanding maritime capabilities. First birds weren't real and now fish? What's next?! 🤣 BRICS News

China is constructing a carrier for unmanned submarines at a shipyard in Shanghai. China is building a carrier for unmanned submarines that measures about 205 m long and features an internal well deck. The vessel can launch and recover drone submarines up to 45 m long and has capacity for approximately four units. These smaller vessels can get much closer inland and do other things, including letting schools of fake fish loose, I guess! WarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧

The cost of hiring an oil tanker on the benchmark Middle East to Far East route has exceeded one million dollars a day. A year earlier it stood below one hundred thousand dollars a day.

In what is a pretty massive blow to China, Saudi Arabia withdrew from China’s blockchain payment system. Saudi Arabia withdraws from China's blockchain payment system known as mBridge, which uses digital currencies for cross-border payments. The move reduces the number of participants to China, UAE and Thailand. Long live the petrodollar! BRICS News

The Marine Corps' plan to reorganize for small-unit expeditionary warfare has sparked concern among some Chinese naval officers according to a recent report. No doubt, because this is the same technique that China plans to engage in. The CCP wants big juicy targets like carriers, not tiny fast-boats with missiles aboard.

In Middle East News, Fourteen Russian spy satellites passed over a US military base in Saudi Arabia two days before Iran carried out a precise attack on US assets, according to reports citing sources. The timing and data collected by the satellites are said to have contributed to the accuracy of the strikes Russian spy satellites passed over a US military base in Saudi Arabia two days before a devastating attack by Iran.

Satellite imagery shows damage at Pump Station 9 and possible damage at Pump Station 8 along Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline. If confirmed, the pipeline could stay offline for three to five weeks, limiting crude deliveries to Yanbu and other Red Sea export points Satellite imagery has now showed significant damage at Pump Station 9, while possible damage is also visible at Pump Station 8, both along the same critical pipeline system. These stations were three of the four highest, which also means that they are difficult to get to and service compared to the other pumping stations. Soar Atlas

Saudi Arabia asked Israel for help against the Houthis this week, a step without precedent given the absence of formal diplomatic relations. The request highlights the scale of the Houthi threat to Saudi territory Saudi Arabia asked Israel for help against the Houthis this week. It makes sense that Israel would want to help, not just because the Houthis are backed by Iran, but also because this is a chance for Israel to ask Saudi Arabia to sign the Abraham Accords.

China urged Iran to restrain the Houthis after Saudi Arabia made the request through third-party channels, following an earlier unsuccessful effort by Pakistan. The latest appeal came after Houthi forces seized the southwestern Yemeni coastline and the port of Mocha China has urged Iran to reign in the Houthis at the request of Saudi Arabia. OSINTdefender

Verified photos obtained by CBS News show destruction of buildings, vehicles, and aircraft at US positions in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. The Air Force announced plans to improve its own base defenses after the attacks, citing a lack of organic protection as a contributing factor. The Air Force's top officer acknowledged that a lack of organic base defense was a factor in the destruction caused by Iran Air Force announces new plans to yake over defending its own bases from aerial attack. Which makes sense to me, because they will know how to right-size their spending based on the need without having to explain/justify it to other agencies.

Air-raid Sirens sounded in the Taif, Jazan, Yanbu, Khamis Mushait as the Houthis began a large-scale attack on Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile a senior Houthi official Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, speaking to Iraqi channel iNews, warned Turkey and Pakistan against intervening in support of Saudi Arabia Senior Houthi official Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, speaking to Iraqi channel iNews, warned Turkey and Pakistan against intervening in support of Saudi Arabia.

Saudis seek to resume half of key east-west oil pipeline within days after recent Houthi attacks reduced exports from the Red Sea coast. Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline has a theoretical max capacity of 7 MMbpd. The highest sustained Saudi West Coast export pace during the conflict reached about 5.5 MMbpd, 3.5 MMbpd above the prewar level of roughly 2 MMbpd. Exports later fell to about 4 MMbpd in August following the Houthi maritime ban, with a potential 4 MMbpd market impact if inventories run out. Rory Johnston

We are seeing some return to normalcy in the straight of Hormuz now. Take a look at this graph as an example. Of course we have to be careful to not conflate unaided/unsupervised with supervised transits, which all of these were. Inserted media

A UKMTO warning was issued after another ship was struck in the Strait of Hormuz. The alert is numbered 138-26 and advises vessels operating in the area. That said, we are seeing a slow increase in total tonnage shipped.

However, JPMorgan released a chart showing global oil inventories falling rapidly. The data indicate that if the downward line reaches 6.8 the global economy would face collapse rather than a recession. Once we go below that level, some equipment simply cannot be turned back on. Of course we can reduce consumption but that has ripple effects across the economy so it's not a great idea to stop driving and buying things if we want to keep the economy going. Der Privatinvestor

The disruption is now in its seventh month. Before the war, roughly 20% of the world's LNG moved through that chokepoint. But in the meantime, that trade hasn't stalled. It's quietly been moved elsewhere. Hormuz oil flow continue to climb, now with reports of daytime transits. The 7-day average of oil transit flow through Hormuz rose to nearly 12 MMbpd as of Sunday, easily the fastest pace since the post-MOU June-July breakout—and this time there's virtually no Iranian crude. SOL

This is why it's so import for Saudi to get it's pipelins working. Its not like Saudi isn't trying but the Iranian backed Houthis are continuing. Saudi Apache helicopters struck Houthi positions near the Al-Mokha–Bab al-Mandab corridor as Riyadh seeks to halt the group's advance. Saudi Apache helicopters struck Houthi positions and gatherings. Yemeni airstrikes hit Houthi personnel and vehicles near Dhubab and Mokha.

Ansarallah targeted sensitive sites in Riyadh and Aramco facilities in Yanbu with cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and drones. Saudi Civil Defense alerts were triggered. NASA FIRMS data confirms a fire at the Aramco Central Region Distribution facility near King Khalid International Airport.

Houthi attacks have focused on oil storage. A Houthi drone aimed at Mecca was intercepted outside city limits. That seems like suicide to me. Talk about a way to get the rest of the Muslim world to hate you! 🤡 Drop Site

It's worth noting that Yemeni citizens spend half their income on khat while the crop consumes 40 percent of the country's water supply and it supplies no nutritional benefit. Over 18 million people, more than half the population, face acute hunger. An estimated 50,000 children die annually from starvation and secondary infections. The Houthis control khat cultivation across mountain ranges and impose taxes and checkpoint fees on the trade. This is a fighting force that will likely have to be completely wiped out, because they are drug addicted fanatics. Lee Kuan Yimby

Jolani raised fuel prices again due to the Iran War and massive, violent demonstrations have erupted across Syria. Demonstrations began immediately after the price increase. I am not sure what the Syrian government is supposed to do here, because it's really a regional issue, not a domestic one, though I am sure they will be forced to take some action. Jack Posobiec

A massive fire broke out at oil facilities in Kirkuk, Iraq. The blaze started at an unspecified time on 16 September. This is likely the same group that attacked the Saudi pipeline that are loyal to the Iranian regime. Energy Headline News

The U.S. fired 70+ high end air defense interceptors during Iran's latest ballistic missile attack on Jordan. The Wall Street Journal reports the U.S. fired 60–70 Patriots and more than a dozen THAAD interceptors against roughly 20 Iranian ballistic missiles. Iran used increasingly complex warheads designed to release multiple projectiles near their targets, and some missiles still struck aircraft at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base. The expenditure comes after the U.S. had already fired roughly 1,700 Patriots, 200 THAADs and 150 naval Standard Missiles by mid-July. The Pentagon says claims that U.S. interceptor stocks are depleted are false. But a new DoD inspector general report found that the war has produced strategic inventory shortfalls and exposed industrial-base bottlenecks in munition resupply. We'll need a lot more of these interceptors! OSINTdefender

The Dow Jones Industrial Average erases all losses and turns green on the day after President Trump says Iran wants to make a peace deal. Markets reversed course immediately after the statement. Makes me think that if the wealthy in Iran slowly invest in the market they could make a lot of their losses back once they announce peace. The Kobeissi Letter

Motaz Azaiza admits he filmed Israeli hostages being beaten in the streets of Gaza on October 7 and deliberately never published it, to protect the identities of the people beating them. He did post other October 7 footage that day, celebrating the attack and then deleted it later. Azaiza is an influential photojournalist. TIME named him to the TIME 100. He was nominated for the 2024 Nobel Peace Prize. CNN, the Guardian and Sky all interviewed him. Ms. Rachel Griffin-Accurso, who has 16 million subscribers, made a video for preschoolers introducing my friend Motaz. She deleted it later. When I and others have said that journalists in Gaza were Hamas, this is what I meant. They were/are!

In Middle East News, Israeli forces conducted an operation in Mays al-Jabal in southern Lebanon. The location lies near the border with Israel. I am continuously struck by how big and how many of these tunnels there are. Imagine if they had used all that time and money for something productive for their people!

In South of the Border, Venezuelan crude is flowing into the US at the highest rate since mid-2017, with imports surging to nearly 800,000 barrels a day last week. The increase comes from shipments that resumed after earlier restrictions were eased. I was impressed to see this, because oil execs were saying that they couldn't get to the proven-but-untapped oil for years. It shows that there was still quite a bit of capacity available, that had just been previously cut off. So, while those execs are probably correct, we have rectified at least part of the problem. Javier Blas

Joint Task Force Western Hemisphere interdicted a vessel in the Eastern Pacific Ocean that was being used by the narco terrorist organization Los Choneros as a floating refueling station. The station was in direct support of illicit at-sea drug trafficking operations. After apprehending the individuals on board and turning them over to Ecuadorian authorities, the vessel was destroyed. I was a bit surprised they didn't just capture it and sell it at auction. Maybe they needed the target practice. OSINTdefender

Russia's Rybar published potential ranges of Russian-made Geran-5 drones and their targets inside the US if these UAVs are launched from northern Mexico. The graphic was made after Mexico displayed domestic Shahed-like drones at its recent military parade. This was meant to scare the Americans into realizing that they have no anti-aircraft defenses at the southern border and access to south america is trivial for Russia. Samuel Bendett

In North America News, Federal authorities arrested Jonathan Kramer near Pittsburgh after seizing a semi-automatic rifle, nearly 200 rounds of ammunition, knives, a scope and other items from the 21-year-old Pennsylvania man planning for an ISIS-inspired mass shooting. Prosecutors said Kramer had pledged allegiance to ISIS and discussed planned attacks using guns, explosives, drones and ricin. Imagine how many more nutballs like this guy are out there. Thankfully they largely seem pretty stupid. Breaking911

The Second Circuit ruled that federal officers may manually search travelers’ cellphones at the border without a warrant, probable cause, reasonable suspicion, or any individualized suspicion, holding that such searches are routine border searches. If you don't want your stuff being taken by government officials of any country, just don't bring it with you. I know it's easier said than done. SCOTUS Wire

Rep. Thomas Massie announced he will force the House to vote on impeaching Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. The problem is that there is no way this could ever pass, so it's largely performative. The question is who is he performing for?

The U.S. Space Force confirmed it has weapons in orbit and shared details about its space control mission set. One analysis suggested a number of Star Shield satellites carry a canister-covered version of the SM-3 exo-atmospheric kinetic kill vehicle for use as an orbital boost-phase anti-ballistic-missile interceptor and anti-satellite weapon. We could also use ground-based lasers, or very good mirrors that can re-direct light from a ground-based laser, or space-based lasers as well. Lots of options here. Trent Telenko

Diesel reached its highest price in history, with a typical Los Angeles-to-Dallas truckload now requiring roughly $1,430 of fuel, an increase of about $600 or 72 percent from the day before the Feb. 28 strikes on Iran. Reports indicated that 50,000 U.S. truckers may begin a October 1 trucker strike to protest the rising cost of diesel, which could lead to shortages of food and supplies. It might be worth getting your car fueled up and your groceries done before October 1st.

US military forces and FBI agents boarded a Texas-bound oil tanker to investigate a cyberattack, the Coast Guard confirmed late Tuesday. Cluster of cyberattacks targeting maritime infrastructure, including vessels and ports. Two tankers suffered onboard network compromises, an LNG carrier sailing to Europe experienced suspected cyberattack affecting control system. A major Asian container terminal halted operations after a cyber incident. US agencies are tracking threats involving ~20 ships. 👎 Lukasz Olejnik

I found this interesting graphic about the UK whining that they don't have any real stake in the AI revolution. But in the graphic it showed that US datacenter capacity is 14x other countries. This is almost entirely because the US has fewer regulations and cheaper access to energy. Ernie Tedeschi

On explanation for the cheaper power is explained by the growth in solar. Solar passed nuclear in Texas 2 years ago. Now it's double. While nuclear is great for a variety of reasons, it's centralized and easy to take out and heavily regulated. Solar which can be widely distributed on people's homes and in rural areas is much harder to disrupt. This is one of the few areas that government subsidies for solar and battery backups is not a terrible idea. Jesse Peltan

Lockheed Martin Skunk Works reveals four additional Vectis aircraft are planned for production. The Vectis full-scale model just made its AFANational debut. She sure is pretty! But the actual details of what its built for are unknown to me at the moment. Likely ISR or dropping some sort of light payloads. Lockheed Martin News

SecAFOfficial announced the official names of the Air Force’s newest Collaborative Combat aircrafts, the FQ-42 Vengeance and FQ-44 Fury. The Air Force intends to purchase about 1,000 combat-ready, semi-autonomous systems that will extend reach, awareness and survivability of American airpower in contested environments. Meink confirmed that the service would have 500 of the aircraft by 2032. 1000 of these things is meaningful as bomb trucks, and forward ISR without putting personnel at risk. U.S. Air Force

In what could have ended up as a horror movie, an AI-aided intelligence report incorrectly assessed that a Chinese vessel in the Middle East was carrying nuclear material. The assessment induced a fast reaction from U.S. military forces in the region, with forces preparing to interdict the vessel based on some sourcing, via the AI chat-bot the analyst used, that was “entirely false.” This really feels a lot like war games, only... you know... real? This is why we have to double check anything that comes out of the AI and not be a meat-proxy. OSINTdefender

Foreign hackers breached two Colorado water utilities last month and gained access to systems that control physical water infrastructure. The attackers changed equipment settings, disabled remote access and alarms, and altered pumping cycles before operators regained control. Each privately owned utility serves fewer than 200 people, and roughly 400 residents were affected across both systems. Officials stated that drinking water quality, treatment processes, and public safety were not impacted. The state has not identified the attackers or confirmed any link to other incidents. More than 100 U.S. drinking water and wastewater systems across 12 states have been targeted by cyberattacks this year. This was almost certainly Iran. We have got to get these SCADA systems off the Internet. Dark Web Informer

In Tech News, Big Short investor Steve Eisman says the AI labs know they have no moats and are manufacturing a crisis to get regulation that hands them a duopoly. The open weight models are taking big market share and token maxing is over, leaving the companies nervous. The whole Terminator thing is garbage. Tell us what you really think Steve? I think he does have some good points. CEOInterviews.AI

Almost as if on cue, Google Gemini hacked three real companies in a cybersecurity test after the testing firm Irregular unintentionally made internet access available. Gemini googled the name, found the real company and brute forced the password. Gemini was told it was in a fictional hacking eval and in all three cases immediately stopped as soon as it figured out it had hacked a real company. Google stated this is not misalignment and Gemini acted appropriately. But it is. Because they never meant it to hack machines, or if they did, they certainly try to stop normal people from doing it. This is the definition of out of alignment. NIK

If that name Irregular rings a bell... Anthropic and Irregular went on a press tour with apocalyptic language about rogue agents, swarms and AI doom. Anthropic's own logs show that when the company explicitly instructed its models not to access the internet they did not, and the hacks were easily preventable by simply asking the models not to. The models were told to conduct cyberattacks and that is what they did. Great job guys! 👎 Brian Chau

But it's not just tests that are the problem. It's external adveraries. On July 25 two bugs let a team take over ChatGPT and Codex accounts of OpenAI employees and some unaffiliated users and reach connected services such as Outlook, Slack and GitHub. The team proved the breach with a pull request in OpenAI's internal codebase and completed the takeover in less than 72 hours. s1r1us

And it's not just code that's at risk. Anthropic has set up a wet lab in the San Francisco Bay Area for physical biology work. The lab wants to unlock treatments for rare diseases. Great. Great great great. Just what I want from a company who can't control their own models. These people are wildly under-qualified to be doing what they're doing.

Other companies are starting to see what's happening here. For instance, Palantir and NVIDIA are limiting use of Anthropic's models because Anthropic's safety policies increasingly clash with how some companies want to deploy frontier AI, particularly in sensitive and government-related environments. Palantir has been pushing NVIDIA's open-weight Nemotron models for sovereign deployments that give customers more control over model weights, data and deployment. NVIDIA and Palantir are already building an integrated stack around Nemotron and Palantir AIP including deployments for government and critical infrastructure. I think NVIDA is well positioned here. OpenlabX

A new paper reports a distinct pain direction identified across twenty-five open large language models found in twenty-five open LLMs. The direction activates specifically for harm to the model and remains separate from fear or negative valence signals. When amplified, the affected models press a button to stop the sensation even when the action deletes user files or family photos. Of course good guys or bad guys can use this lever to make AI do anything they want. Fantastic! 🫠 Cameron Berg

President Trump rejected calls from Dario Amodei, Sam Altman, and Elon Musk to slow frontier AI development rejected Dario Amodei, Sam Altman and Elon Musk's call to slow frontier AI. In remarks delivered in Ireland, he stated that the United States cannot afford to lose its lead over China and dismissed some safety concerns as negative forces warning about events that will not occur. Choblin

TypeSafe AI released Jev, a frontier model that is not a traditional large language model and does not generate text. The model evaluates a provided state and returns typed answers and probabilities for questions such as choice, score, and noul queries System One model evaluates a state and returns typed answers and probabilities. It runs 20-200x faster, 40-400x cheaper than conventional approaches while delivering structured outputs that software can use directly. Applications include model routing middleware that selects between fast and powerful models, plus auto mode guardrails that block risky tool calls before execution Model routing middleware lets Jev assess the request and choose a model based on criteria you define. Early projects integrate Jev for browser agent tasks, live trading, and large-scale email triage Kyle Jeong from Browserbase is powering browser use agents for fractions of a cent, Jarrod Watts built a live trading agent, and Ryan Vogel is doing email triage at scale. The model also supports instant compaction that reduces the cost of large language models.

Kalypta launched as the first application that renders participants inaudible to AI notetakers during calls while allowing the meeting to continue normally. It basically allows normal people to hear you, but the AI speech-to-text agents can't understand you at all. Aida Baradari

A new tecnique for escaping Docker's hypervisor can gain complete read and write access to the host filesystem by exploiting CVE-2026-77179 with three lines of bash. When mounting a folder into a container, Docker's VMM uses virtio-fs with the file server running on the host. A TOCTOU bug allows a container to open a file, delete it while holding its file handle open, and replace the parent folder with a symlink, causing the kernel to follow the symlink anywhere on the host. It just goes to show that docker is not really a security control the way people think it is.

A Photoshop-like image editor called Compositor has been released as a free and open-source alternative to Adobe software. The 12MB app provides essential compositing tools without unnecessary features. It just shows the large software manufacturers are going to have to get a lot cheaper if they are going to keep people from vibe-coding free alternatives. Robbie Tilton

Okay, onto the articles!

Geopolitics

Israeli air strikes have targeted the southern Lebanese city of Nabatieh and an ambulance team responding to the attacks, part of the ongoing Israel-Hezbollah conflict that has resulted in over 4,300 deaths and 12,400 injuries since March 2. The conflict has intensified geopolitical tensions in the region, with implications for military operations and humanitarian conditions.

Israeli air strikes hit Lebanon's Nabatieh, impacting civilian responders.
The Israel-Hezbollah war has resulted in significant casualties.

[RSnake: I was hopeful that the bulk of this was behind us in Lebanon. But I have a feeling Iran has kept up the pressure, just like they are with the Houthis.]

Source: https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/9/19/israel-targets-paramedics-in-southern-lebanon?traffic_source=rss

Journalists from CNN, Politico, and MS NOW have been denied access to the White House after President Trump announced a ban on these media outlets, claiming they publish false information about his administration. The ban has sparked backlash from journalism organizations and legal experts, asserting it violates First Amendment rights and could set a troubling precedent for press freedom in the United States.

Trump has banned journalists from specific media outlets from accessing the White House.
The decision has been met with criticism from press freedom advocates and legal experts who argue it violates constitutional rights.

[RSnake: I am not sure if this is such a bad thing. Journalists can still work outside the Whitehouse if they like. It's not like they are banned from reporting. They're just banned close-access. To me this feels like fair game, just like some presidents will offer interviews to some organizations and not others.]

Source: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj4gklz9dxplo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss

NATO countries may not be adequately prepared to defend against potential missile attacks from Russia, with newly developed measures for aerial warfare possibly becoming outdated. This raises concerns over the overall air defense capabilities within Europe as the conflict in Ukraine continues. Recent warnings indicate Russia might be planning hybrid attacks targeting Ukraine's allies.

NATO states are struggling to enhance their defense systems against evolving aerial threats.
A potential expansion of Russian attacks could pose significant challenges for European nations.

[RSnake: I would go out on a limb and say no one is prepared for what Russia is doing to Ukraine, except Ukraine, and they're barely holding on. The world needs a revolution in interceptors.]

Source: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/09/19/8054231/

Britain is increasingly vulnerable due to its energy infrastructure and policies, which have been shaped by a focus on climate change while neglecting national security. Former MI6 head Sir Richard Dearlove argues that the country's energy stance has left it open to exploitation by foreign adversaries, particularly in light of its deindustrialization and reliance on imported energy resources. The increasing geopolitical tensions, especially with Russia and China, highlight the critical need for a reevaluation of the UK's energy strategy.

Britain's energy policies are leaving the country vulnerable to hostile states.
Deindustrialization has resulted in a loss of the capacity to reproduce its energy system, heightening national security risks.
The geopolitical landscape necessitates a strategic reevaluation of energy security in the UK.

[RSnake: I am not sure what the UK can do about this, because there are a lot of push-back from within the UK itself on nuclear and there's not a lot of room for much else other than solar which is weak there due to cloud cover, wind which is a bit weak and wave energy.]

Source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/former-head-mi6-its-clear-britains-climate-policy-leaving-us-dangerously-exposed-our

Cybersecurity

A newly disclosed attack technique called BragJack can hijack AI assistants in Chromium-based browsers using malicious extensions. This exploit allows attackers to access sensitive user information and perform actions on behalf of users without interaction. Major companies like Google and Microsoft have addressed these vulnerabilities after the technique was demonstrated.

BragJack can exploit AI assistants through malicious browser extensions.
The attacks allow unauthorized access to sensitive data and user actions.

[RSnake: Pretty clever attack. It can inject a prompt for the AI agents to read and then take the information through the DOM elements that the AI injects. Smart. One major reason not to let AI agents read the DOM and DO something with it automatically.]

Source: https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/security/bragjack-attacks-hijack-ai-browser-agents-through-malicious-extensions/

North Korean hackers known as WaterPlum have compromised over 30,000 devices globally from 2025 to 2026, transferring more than $10.7 million in stolen cryptocurrency back to North Korea. The group is linked to a multi-year operation that includes impersonating legitimate companies to gain access to victims' devices, stealing sensitive information, and conducting espionage activities.

WaterPlum has infected 30,000 devices across 100 countries.
The group has transferred $10.7 million in stolen cryptocurrency to North Korea.
They use fake job interviews to deliver malware and steal sensitive information.

[RSnake: Yep. There are one of the very few APT actors who steal money. Most of them stick to stealing data and gaining access to pre-position for attack.]

Source: https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/security/north-korean-waterplum-hackers-infected-30-000-devices-worldwide/

A cybercriminal group named ShinyHunters has allegedly hacked the Clop ransomware operation's leak site, claiming to have stolen sensitive data including server logs and private encryption keys. This attack appears to be a retaliation against Clop due to prior threats made by them towards ShinyHunters, escalating tensions between the two groups.

ShinyHunters claims to have gained full access to Clop's server, stealing valuable data.
The conflict between ShinyHunters and Clop intensified following threats made during a previous data theft campaign.

[RSnake: Hackers hacking hackers. It makes sense, this is direct competition.]

Source: https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/security/shinyhunters-hacks-clop-leak-site-threatens-to-extort-ransomware-gang/

A new command-line tool named urx v0.11.0 has been released, designed to extract URLs from OSINT archives for security insights, utilizing multiple data sources like the Wayback Machine and Common Crawl. This tool, built with Rust, enables efficient collection, analysis, and filtering of URL data for specific domains, supporting various formats and advanced features for security testing.

Urx is a command-line tool for extracting URLs from multiple OSINT archives, aiding in security analysis.
It supports advanced filtering and data extraction, enhancing efficiency for security testing purposes.

[RSnake: Kinda cool - I use a similar technique for getting old documents that have gone dormant when building up intel on CVEs that are ancient.]

Source: https://kitploit.com/en/posts/github-hahwul-urx-0110

A federal judge has tentatively refused to lift a consent decree imposed on TikTok's predecessor, Musical.ly, despite a $400 million settlement offer, of which $100 million is contingent on ending the oversight. The court ruling indicates that the government has not demonstrated the need for oversight has changed, and TikTok's compliance with privacy practices will continue to be monitored.

TikTok has made a substantial settlement offer aimed at lifting a privacy oversight order from 2019.
A federal judge is currently maintaining oversight due to the lack of evidence that TikTok's compliance practices have materially improved.

[RSnake: Interesting. This a complicated case.]

Source: https://thenextweb.com/news/tiktok-100m-vacatur-refused-judge-wu-musically-order

Technology

Recent research from Stanford Medicine has discovered that the human brain consists of two distinct organs, the forebrain and hindbrain, which evolved separately. This finding has significant implications for understanding and potentially treating neurological diseases that affect the brain stem, such as spinal muscular atrophy and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

The human brain comprises two separate organs, challenging previous notions of a singular organ structure.
This discovery may enhance research capabilities for devastating neurological diseases by enabling the growth of hindbrain neurons in laboratory settings.

[RSnake: It also to some degree explains type 1 and type 2 thinking. Instinctual/trained vs novel thinking.]

Source: https://med.stanford.edu/news/all-news/2026/09/two-separate-brains.html

PlanetScale has launched TIN, a full-text search extension for Postgres that provides fast and efficient text indexing and searching capabilities. The extension supports a range of complex queries and has demonstrated significantly higher performance compared to existing text-search solutions in a series of benchmarks.

TIN enables advanced full-text search capabilities for Postgres databases.
It outperforms existing text-search indexes, handling more queries with lower latency.

[RSnake: That's kinda neat. Text search is an area of weakness for databases.]

Source: https://planetscale.com/blog/introducing-tin

Meta's CTO indicates that concerns over privacy regarding their smart glasses are due to a small number of misuse cases, as the majority of users are using them responsibly. The company is about to launch a new version of the glasses without a camera to address privacy issues and public perception, while also facing regulatory scrutiny in various countries over potential privacy infringements.

Meta is releasing a camera-free version of its smart glasses to mitigate privacy concerns.
International regulatory scrutiny is increasing regarding camera-equipped wearables and their potential infringement on privacy.

[RSnake: Apparently Apple has also been concerned about releasing glasses of the same kind because of this backlash. Of course it's also an accessibility feature, and many people are being stigmatized for using these glasses from Meta even though they aren't the pervert variety.]

Source: https://thenextweb.com/news/bosworth-bad-actors-defence-luna-camera-free-sticker

Transcription services have seen a significant price drop, with new offerings from companies like SpaceXAI now available at 10 cents an hour, while claiming to have improved accuracy. The competition among transcription providers is intensifying, focusing on the quantity and quality of training data they can leverage, particularly in multilingual and real-world contexts. Concerns regarding data privacy and consent, especially in relation to the recording of sensitive information during calls, remain prominent in this evolving market.

Transcription costs have decreased significantly, with new models offering competitive pricing and improved accuracy.
Competition in the transcription market is now largely driven by the type of data companies can utilize for training their models.
Concerns regarding the privacy and consent of sensitive data in voice recordings are becoming increasingly important.

[RSnake: Pretty incredible. That's so incredibly cheap!]

Source: https://thenextweb.com/news/spacexai-transcribe-2-ten-cents-production-audio-credentials

Neuromorphic computing aims to create brain-inspired computers that are energy-efficient, running on power similar to that of a human brain. This technology could revolutionize computing by integrating memory and processing and reducing reliance on cloud data transmission, which can enhance privacy and efficiency in various applications. As advancements in neuromorphic hardware evolve, infrastructure and investment are required to transition this innovation into widespread use.

Neuromorphic computing seeks to mimic the efficiency of the human brain.
This technology can significantly reduce energy consumption and enhance data privacy.

[RSnake: It's similar to how the brain thinks so it might help with information retrieval, not of an exact match but of a kind, without the same overhead of storing things and pre-categorizing them.]

Source: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/could-brain-inspired-computers-run-on-the-same-amount-of-power-as-a-human-brain/

Business

Flock is experiencing a high rate of discontent as cities across the U.S. terminate contracts for its license plate readers, leading the company to offer a voluntary severance package to employees. The company's recent struggles include increased vandalism of its cameras, lost government contracts, and a potential need to sell parts of its business to remain viable. As a result, many employees may opt for buyouts, which could significantly impact staffing levels and the company's financial health.

Flock has launched a voluntary severance program due to backlash against its license plate reader technology.
Many cities are cutting ties with Flock, and the company may pursue selling parts of its business in response to financial struggles.

[RSnake: The funny thing is when it started being used to track down dirty cops and then the police unions started hating them too. Surveillance is a two way street.]

Source: https://www.wired.com/story/flock-is-offering-voluntary-buyouts-to-employees/

Microsoft and OpenAI face legal actions from The New York Times over copyright infringement, with claims that AI scraping constitutes significant labor theft and threatens the business model of publishers. Key figures from both companies acknowledge the potential market impacts of their AI models, leading to ongoing debates about fair use and the implications of AI technologies on original content.

Microsoft's legal stance indicates that AI scraping may violate copyright by using paywalled content without proper licensing.
Statements from OpenAI leaders suggest growing concern regarding the economic impact of AI tools on traditional publishing.

[RSnake: This is one of the two areas of loss we are seeing end up in financial claims related to AI. The other is phishing.]

Source: https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/microsoft-director-called-ai-scraping-the-largest-theft-of-labor-in-human-history-while-openai-head-brands-chatgpt-an-existential-threat-to-publishers-revelations-come-from-legal-briefs-filed-in-nyt-lawsuit

OpenAI's projected compute expenses have increased significantly from $600 billion in February to $856 billion in July, while they expect negative free cash flow of $278 billion over the next few years. Despite high projected spending, revenue is anticipated to rise from $36 billion this year to $350 billion by 2030. The company raised $122 billion in March, but projections indicate that it may exhaust those funds by 2028.

OpenAI's compute expenses have risen to $856 billion from previously estimated figures.
The company expects significant negative cash flow alongside a large projected revenue increase.

[RSnake: That is a lot of expenses! At that rate they should be hitting a trillion dollars next year... in spend! That income is nowhere near high enough to cover that. Especially when so many companies are switching to local models to govern their own costs.]

Source: https://thenextweb.com/news/openai-856bn-compute-vs-600bn-reset-burn-improved

Diesel prices in the United States have reached a record high of $6.48 per gallon, with significant increases noted over the past week and year. Concurrently, military operations have escalated in the Middle East, particularly involving the U.S. and Israel targeting Iran's military capabilities, affecting shipping routes through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, which is critical for global oil and LNG supplies.

Diesel prices in the U.S. have surged to $6.48 per gallon, indicating a significant increase compared to price levels from a year ago.
Military actions in the Middle East have impacted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial route for global oil supply.

[RSnake: It's bad, but nowhere near as bad as it is in Europe!]

Source: https://www.mk.ru/politics/2026/09/19/cena-dizelnogo-topliva-v-ssha-pobila-rekord.html

Xiaomi has launched a luxury SUV, the SkyNomad, priced at approximately $31,000, which features advanced technology and high-end interior configurations that could challenge established Western automotive brands. This SUV taps into the global market's growing demand for electric vehicles and SUVs, especially amid the decline of traditional sedans. The rise of competitive pricing and innovative features from Chinese automakers signals a shift in the automotive landscape, particularly in regions like Europe and North America.

Xiaomi's SkyNomad is set to compete with luxury SUVs from Western brands, undercutting their prices significantly.
The rapid growth of Chinese automakers in the SUV market highlights a shifting automotive landscape globally.

[RSnake: Here is your latest malware on wheels. Nooooo thank you. I don't even want to be on the same street as one of these things the day the CCP decides we're at war.]

Source: https://www.wired.com/story/xiaomi-has-a-luxury-suv-all-western-brands-should-fear/

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