RSnake Report 20260620

Iran MOU, Moscow hit with drones, etc

June 20, 2026

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Hello, and thanks for reading! Busy week at work for me. Root Evidence is still about a month away from going to general availability, but we did announce one major feature of what we are building... a Mythos Warranty. There is a ton of talk about how AI-created CVEs are accelerating and that there will be tons of new vulnerabilities being used by adversaries. I agree with the first part, and it has already started. The second part not so much. There are some very complex reasons why, and I'll do my best to briefly explain it.

One of the companies I really like is called Vigilocity. They take over one of the command and control endpoints of various botnets to see who reaches out to them, indicating that the end user has been compromised by the botnet. I asked the CEO, Karim, why adversaries don't just push an update to the botnet to stop routing traffic to him. The answer is that it is too dangerous - any change to the botnet at all and it'll risk taking the whole thing down. You cannot cowboy code if you are a botnet herder. So they have to maintain the status quo as long as possible with no edits unless absolutely necessary. Lose one C&C node, no big deal, just let it be.

Further, adversaries already have access to >350,000 CVEs, and they still choose to only use a handful of them. The reason is that most vulnerabilities really aren't practical or useful to an adversary. If they were, why would they need AI's help to find more? We run into companies that have 200+ million CVEs in their environment, and they have never been compromised, that they can tell anyway, and have suffered no losses. Why not? Because something about all those CVEs just doesn't help the average adversary. We also know that the number of new CVEs is growing, and as a percentage, the number of CVEs being used by the adversary shrinks. That's a very strong signal that adversaries aren't on the hype cycle of AI.

But let's say I'm wrong and adversaries embrace AI full stop.

Well, AI is huge, so you either have to copy huge LLM models around to every machine you want to use it on, or you need a centralized server to use. That's an enormous signal either way. They're also trained on past knowledge, not current thinking, so adversaries who are using AI to build their malware use ancient, well-publicized techniques. That's also leading to easy detection (this is already happening, by the way). So, evolutionarily, this is a dead end because they need stealth. But if I am wrong and people really believe that AI-enabled adversaries will pick and choose new CVEs on a whim and keep shifting rapidly despite the fact it loses them money to lose access to their own botnets and easily gets them caught, then that makes our warranty an even better deal. It's a good bet!

Why does Root Evidence want the warranty? Because it allows us to get feedback from our customers when breaches that lead to loss occur. We get to see what the adversaries are doing and build up actuarial tables around it. It's a feedback loop of new/great breach/loss data that can help to inform our models and make us better. We get to eat our own dog food and improve based on losses. It's a big deal to finally put us in alignment with what our customers' needs are. Okay, enough about what I'm up to. On to the news, and it was pretty stunning visually this week...

In Russia/Ukraine news, I remember a time when the US was trying to stop Ukraine from firing into Russia... oh, how times have changed. Ukrainian forces struck the Moscow Oil Refinery, damaging the AVT-6 primary oil processing unit, a combined oil processing unit, and multiple storage tanks. This is about 15 kilometers south of the Kremlin. Inserted media

One explosion was caused by an errant Russian surface-to-air missile. And the reaction memes from it are... great. 🤣

The satellite view of that tank (bottom right quadrant of the photo) is pretty telling. Several tanks were destroyed in the attack, and refining has stopped for the moment. Once these things get hot, all of the welds need to be inspected and repaired. They're not designed for this kind of heat and pressure, so they aren't easy to fix as a result. Inserted media

It is speculated that some internal saboteurs have set up spotting lasers to aid drones in their flight path. So much so that people are being asked to turn on IR cameras to look for them.

The air quality in the city must be awful because there are lots of photos of cars and windows covered in hydrocarbon debris/soot. Some people have even expressed leaving the city entirely. Yes, but to where, one might ask! Inserted media

I mean, Moscow looks awful. The people there cannot deny that the war has come to their doorsteps. Once upon a time, maybe a year or so ago, maybe there were a few errant drones, and a few assassinations, and maybe you could ignore that as the average Moscovian, but this is a whole different story! Inserted media

Imagine driving along and seeing soldiers in the streets firing MANPADS at drones flying overhead! And it's not like the MANPADS are even working. They're largely not working, as a matter of fact. Inserted media

Ukraine conducted a second consecutive day of strikes on the Moscow Oil Refinery. Russian air defenses claimed to have intercepted 180 of 555 drones and missiles launched over Moscow. That's close to 400 drones and missiles that hit their targets! And now Moscow looks like it's losing, somehow, when even a year ago it was at least in a stalemate. Now, granted, looks can be deceiving, and we have to remember that Russia still has a lot of manufacturing capacity, and China could easily rearm Russia if it felt that doing so would be more advantageous than preparing for a war in the South Pacific.

As a response, Russia deployed anti-air platforms on residential high-rise rooftops in Moscow following repeated Ukrainian drone strikes. They really have no meaningful defense against this happening again, so at least it's something. But keep in mind, Ukraine's drones fly at very low altitude, often below the building line, to avoid radar detection, so these guns will have to be aimed down at the civilian population below to be effective. Doesn't sound so great to me. Inserted media

It did bring up an interesting question on x.com, though - one of the biggest justifications for the F-35 and F-22 platforms was that Russian air defenses were too thick to get anything other than stealth fighters in. Turns out, there is another way. Saturation effects from hundreds or thousands of drones can easily overwhelm the anti-aircraft stockpiles. There is some complicated math here, involving whether or not there is EW jamming, failures of the drones/missiles, anti-aircraft guns, and lasers that have deeper magazines, etc. But it's an important question we should really get to understand if we want to avoid casualties in the next major conflict. That said, it's becoming clear that Ukraine is also using a lot of decoys as well, which further complicates the math for defenders. Inserted media

When I mean these drones are flying low, I think one of the best examples of this was a drone that narrowly missed a fuel truck. I mean, there is no chance AA is going to hit this when it is flying at almost the same height as the horizon. This truck driver is going to ask for a raise, I bet! There are reports that these truck drivers are demanding 100k rubles per run en route to Crimea, which is around $1,370. The average salary of a truck driver is around 380k rubles per year, but it can get up to around a million. That's $13,700 per year on the high end. Not worth it if you ask me. Inserted media

Drones struck the Tyumen oil refinery, located more than 2,000 kilometers inside Russia. The facility processes up to nine million tons of crude annually. Inserted media

Multiple Russian cities, including Moscow, Saratov, Saransk, Ulyanovsk, Irkutsk, Ivanovo, Mordovia, Chita, and Tver, reported fuel supply disruptions. Huge lines are forming in and around Moscow. Prices for higher-octane gasoline reached 159 rubles per liter, which is around $8.24 a gallon - more than double what it is here in the US, which sounds somewhat bad, but keep in mind the average wages for a Russian are less than 1/4th of what an average person in the US makes. So that makes it more like 8-9 times higher. That has caused "hysteria" online with Russia. Inserted media

So instead of fixing the underlying issue of the fuel shortages, the Russian government has done the only reasonable thing it can do. Shut down the Internet even further by limiting VPN usage across the country, obviously. 🤡

Ukrainian long-range Liutyi drones struck a large oil depot in Rybinsk, Yaroslavl Oblast, igniting a fire that fire services could not contain. The site was part of Russia’s Rosrezerv strategic petroleum stockpile. Inserted media

One Tu-22M3 crashed nose-first in Irkutsk this week. Russia has reduced its combat-ready Tu-22M3 bomber fleet by over 70 percent since 2022 due to crashes, Ukrainian strikes, and maintenance issues. It is claimed that they have 9-10 that are combat ready. Inserted media

Russian forces in occupied Crimea accompanied fuel trucks with mobile fire groups amid tightening Ukrainian drone pressure on logistics. These trucks technically are mobile but they also run on fuel too, so to some extent they cannot move much without risking getting stranded. Inserted media

The attacks against Crimea itself subsided a bit in the last week, but I did see this one fuel storage facility in Crimea that was very likely hit by the Ukrainians, though no footage of it. Inserted media

Russian forces deployed the Peresvet-M system to jam Starlink terminals used by Ukrainian drone operators and another named Volna Kupol Garant. Operators reported signal interference during strikes. These are pretty big systems and probably emit a lot of EM, so they will likely be very easy to identify and destroy, is my bet. I'm guessing these things are a high-priority target for Ukraine.

I saw an interesting thing mentioned today, which is that Russian forces shifted to high-altitude reconnaissance drones escorted by their own interceptors after losses from Ukrainian air defenses. They are increasingly using cheap reconnaissance drones. This is somehow reminiscent of WWII tactics with bombers being escorted by fighters.

Some eagle-eyed researchers found that there are around 4,000 engines produced at a single engine factory used in the Russian Shahed drones. That's a lot of drones that have been produced and continue to be produced. Inserted media

Ukraine’s unmanned surface vessel Barracuda, operated by the 40th Marine Brigade, began operating in bays near the Kinburn Spit in addition to rivers, carrying drones and heavy bomber copters. The additional use near bays means that Russia's naval forces will be all be neutralized or be forced out to sea. Inserted media

Ukrainian special forces struck the Hlibivske underground gas storage facility and associated research center in occupied Crimea, along with radar systems, air defense assets, rail assets, and fuel tankers in Crimea, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts.

State Border Guard Service and other drone units struck four gas compressor stations in Crimea, the bridge across the Henichesk Strait, and logistics targets. Russian forces responded by pontoon and temporary crossings near Armiansk, Henichesk, and Chonhar. Inserted media

A Russian strike on a fuel station in Ukraine’s Odesa Oblast caused a fire in the operator building and set a gas tanker truck ablaze. Emergency crews cooled the tanker before extinguishing the fire. No injuries were reported. But it may become clear that we can expect retaliatory attacks on energy and supply logistics from Russia, and this might be a good example of that. Inserted media

Russia also put out a video of various air strikes against Ukraine using largely what looks like to be FABs. We're told this is an important video, but aside from it being a variety of optics, I don't see what we're supposed to be looking for. Maybe you can figure it out. Meanwhile, there were some leaked documents showing that the Oreshnik missiles were missing their targets by tens of kilometers, due to failures in their guidance systems. So much for being a super weapon - even with very large nukes, these would be next to useless at that distance. Inserted media

Other large attacks against air defense systems have been appearing as well. These, too, appear to be using FABs. So there appear to still be enough aircraft in the area capable of dropping large-diameter bombs uncontested. That probably means that Ukrainian air defense is still highly degraded. Inserted media

Ukraine unveiled the DART missile for launch from stratospheric balloons at 12–18 km altitude. The 13 kg missile carries a 3.5 to 10 kg warhead and disables navigation at 6 km to evade electronic warfare. These are stealthy because they have almost no radar signature and fly too high for all but the largest anti-aircraft missiles. They can use favorable winds to get within a few miles of the target before hitting some switch, either based on geography or by altitude. Cheap and smart.

Ukraine unveiled the SIRENA unmanned trimaran at Eurosatory. It carries electronic warfare systems and AIM-9M Sidewinder missiles, reaches 90 km/h, and operates for up to 24 hours with a 300 kg payload.

Ukraine unveiled the Sea Trident heavy underwater drone capable of carrying 1,000 kg of explosives to depths of 60 meters at speeds up to 18.5 km/h. All of these systems give them much closer access to launch effects around Crimea and other areas, allowing them to fire deeper and deeper into Russia. Inserted media

Adding insult to injury, Ukraine introduced the TrophyLab platform to share captured Russian weapons data and equipment with allied governments and defense manufacturers for countermeasure development. Basically, you sign up, and they'll give you extremely detailed specs on all the captured missiles, tanks, drones, etc, if you are an ally creating anti-Russian tech. Pretty crazy that it's so openly discussed.

One of the cooler things I've seen from Russia in a while is an armored pod with 8 blocks of 10 machine guns that pop up and fire all at once. I think that can pretty much guarantee a hit, but I doubt the magazine depth is large enough to handle a large volley of incoming drones, too. Inserted media

Ukraine and Sweden’s Njord Technology agreed to produce the MAUL robotic ground vehicle in Sweden for logistics and casualty evacuation. A coffin on wheels is what it looks like, though I know the intent is to keep people alive, not purely evacuate the dead, but it's got a morbid look, doesn't it? Inserted media

Ukraine introduced the 3D-printed Scythian drone-dropped fragmentation landmine with a magnetic fuze and anti-movement gyroscope for use against wheeled vehicles. It also introduced the OZM- bounding fragmentation landmine with six 10-meter tripwires. These are designed to stick in the ground, and the six wires move a wire inside. They all have a life of 1 year before self-destructing, which I like a lot. Though this war has been going on for years now, so who knows if that's a long enough time or not.

A couple of other things, real quick. Russia cut it's key rate by 25 basis points. It was supposed to be done by 50. Either way, it's 14.25%. That might actually increase inflation further, it's speculated.

Also, Belarus has been allowing Russia to host equipment that aids in the targeting of Ukrainian cities. Zelensky has said that Belarus has one week to remove them or else. So we could see Zelensky doing limited and targeted strikes against Belarus. Would that drag them into the war? We shall see soon enough, I think.

Lastly, before we move on to Europe, one of the most telling videos of the week was almost a throwaway, but it was a guy who worked for Russia-1. Apparently, they are told to edit videos and slice them up, or even re-cut them so that a rosier view of the world can be shown to none other than Putin! It even included recutting videos to make Putin look better to himself. What a beautiful fiction Putin must be living in, when his people are too afraid to tell him what's really going on. And apparently it's been happening since around 2011. Wow. 🤯 Inserted media

In European News, Britain is seeking missile launchers capable of remaining armed and ready on crewless warships for 30 days without crew intervention. Surely this is to create naval blockades and monitoring for other ships that need to be targeted.

Germany will supply Ukraine with >100 quantity of Meteor air-to-air missiles from its reserves for use with Swedish JAS-39 Gripen fighters beginning late 2026 or early 2027. Meanwhile, Thales unveiled the LGR275 Proxy 70 mm laser-guided rocket with a proximity sensor for counter-drone roles in air-to-air and surface-to-air engagements. These are the cheapo versions that fit in small rocket pods. Typically, these things run around $50k.

MBDA completed CROSSBOW firings for a ground-launched DeepStrike missile system. The modular design moved from concept to demonstration in nine months. These are semi-advanced cruise missiles that can be delivered by trucks, so they can be quite nimble in getting to the front line to increase their lethality. Inserted media

In Southeast Asia News, China unveiled a micro-drone weighing less than 0.3 grams that imitates insect flight with wings beating up to 500 times per second. It can carry miniature sensors but has extremely short battery life and high wind sensitivity. It's not clear what sort of sensor package it can carry and if it has bidirectional comms, but it's clearly an intention to go that path. That said, I am wary of this reporting, and it feels like it might all be AI, especially the pictures.

In Middle East News, the United States and Iran signed a 14-point Memorandum of Understanding with Islamabad. The document calls for immediate termination of military operations on all fronts including Lebanon, removal of the U.S. naval blockade within 30 days, sanctions relief, access to frozen assets, and $300 billion reconstruction package. Iran commits to not pursuing nuclear weapons and to IAEA-supervised down-blending of enriched material. There is a lot to unpack here. First of all, this is not a "peace deal" like many in the media keep reporting. It is, however, a rough plan for one. So there is no "breaking it" or "violating it" since it's not an agreement; it's only the path to an agreement. It's non-binding! There are some good, some bad, and some unknowns here. So... let's go through them one by one: Inserted media

Many are calling this a complete failure by the United States in procuring what it wants. But let's double-click on that. First, the Ayatollah was killed, as was the head of the government, and many others in the IRGC. It was a decapitation strike, and it worked because we now have people willing to negotiate when we didn't have that before. Second, the military was heavily degraded, and the nuclear program was set back even further. Third, we got a good look at the Iranian strategy going forward, as did other Middle Eastern countries who can now start hedging against Iran. Fourth, Israel was able to pivot into and highly degrade Hezbollah. Fifth, China's oil and gas reserves were severely depleted. Sixth, it showed the people of Israel and Iran that we take a non-nuclear Iran seriously and can perform airstrikes anywhere, anytime we choose. Seventh, it proved we too can shut down the Straight of Hormuz and crush Iran's economy. Eighth, Trump got to parade out an Iranian official and say that they aren't radicalized without him protesting, which might actually signal a change in the regime's policies. Those are all good things and a solid win.

However, on the bad side, it was expensive! It cost many billions, it diverted our military to the Middle East when we were supposed to be focused on the Monroe Doctrine. It caused destruction at some of our air bases. It weakened some of our standing with some of our allies. It drained much of our oil and gas reserves. It drove up gas prices prior to a midterm election. It gave Iran more negotiating leverage than they previously had with the US. It is viewed by many as a loss, and that is never great.

On the unknown column is that we haven't actually signed any agreements, so who knows what will end up being in there. Israel's self-defense strikes count against the MOU, and it's already been a problem, so Iran can choose to reignite things anytime it choses, and so too can any nutjob with a rocket in Lebanon, or near Kharg Island. Will the straight open? The US says yes, the Iranians say yes, but follow new traffic separation lanes, oh, and no, again, and then yes, but with tolls. Woof. Inserted media

This is due to the ceasefire being "broken" by retaliatory strikes in Lebanon, with more pictures here) which violates the first item in the MOU. Now it's possible that the Hezbollah operatives who fired on Israel first are part of cells who do not directly communicate with Tehran and simply aren't able to see the forrest for the trees. It's also possible that the IRGC/Hezbollah is practicing Taqiyya, which is the practice of lying to infidels in order to bring about the Islamic caliphate. There's no telling! Hezbollah launched drones and rockets into Israeli territory, killing four IDF soldiers. Israel conducted airstrikes on Hezbollah command centers in the Beqaa Valley and more than 80 targets in southern Lebanon. Inserted media

Is the strait open? Well, Trump says it would be open by Friday, JD Vance says yes, that there is no evidence that the Iranians are still closing the strait. I mean, other than the fact that they said it's closed, I guess. So, what does the data say? The IMF data doesn't look reassuring, but it is a lagging indicator to some degree since it last updated 6 days ago.

So how about maritime traffic in real time? Well, according to this map, there are a few ships in the strait, but not many. The vast majority are still huddled on either side of the street and don't appear to be moving. There are hundreds and hundreds of ships on the western side, and maybe dozens in the strait. Also, if you really click into that map, the vast majority in the straight have a speed of zero knots. They're stuck where they are; they aren't moving. That, to me, means that things are trickling through, but certainly not open, despite Trump removing the naval blockade.

To be clear here, Israel isn't the United States, and Hezbollah isn't Iran, but somehow they are being conflated here in this MOU. Iran wants the US to get more control over Israel. Is it working? Well, in a very strange turn of events, it may be. Trump posted a note that says that "Trump holds the cards in Netanyahu's shaky reelection chances". This is a pretty open threat to have Trump push Israel to avoid proportional responses, at least for the next couple of months, and ideally until November. That may be a hard pill to swallow. Inserted media

It's now coming out that Iran formed new covert cells in Iraq to conduct drone attacks on Gulf countries hosting U.S. forces, bypassing established proxy networks. It's not clear what these groups are called or if they have a name yet.

Syrian grain fields continue to burn with the government unable to respond effectively. Farmers face net losses after the government purchased this year’s crop at below-cost prices. This has been a couple of months now of this going on, which is going to start having a large effect on food safety and prices in the region. Inserted media

Briefly, in South of the Border news, President Trump privately told associates that Venezuela could become the 51st state. I have been thinking for a long time that if countries wanted to join the US, there really shouldn't be a reason to stop them. If the overwhelming majority of the people of that nation wanted it, they were already a democracy at worst or a democratic republic ideally, and assuming they could protect their borders sufficiently. Maybe the White House is starting to think along the same lines.

In North America News, the FBI disrupted a plot by 24 suspects to attack President Trump’s UFC Freedom 250 event at the White House using explosive-laden drones, a pre-staged sniper team, and a follow-on ground assault. At least five individuals are in custody. One planner of the White House drone attack plot believed Trump was protecting Jeffrey Epstein, was eating children, and planned to obtain explosives from a military ordnance plant in Parsons, Kansas. I can't get a good sense of how mentally stable these people are, but they were coordinated, and at least one of them had significant familiarity with weapons. One of them was identified as an illegal alien as well. A lot of the documents and text messages are starting to come out. Ultimately, they were turned in by one of their mothers. She potentially saved a lot of lives that day - a hero. Inserted media

The LA City Council voted 10-5 to place a measure on the November ballot that would grant non-citizens the right to vote in city elections. Of course, that is creating quite the uproar. It all started with it's not happening, then it was happening but only sometimes, and now it's moved to it's happening and it's good. It does seem like this sort of thing could be overridden by a fairly non-contentious federal statute though.

Locally, a small airplane crash happened, in which Capital Factory founder Joshua Baer died. It was a private plane crash in Laredo, Texas. His wife wasn't aboard, but his son and a few others were. All survived, but Josh was killed. Thoughts go out to his family. For those who do not know, I am a mentor at Capital Factory.

The U.S. Air Force selected Anduril for the production phase of the Collaborative Combat Aircraft program. Anduril will deliver production FQ-44 aircraft after moving from prototype to production contract in two years. Thing thing just sped to market! Inserted media

U.S. company Aurelius Systems demonstrated the Archimedes autonomous laser weapon system mounted on a robotic combat vehicle for drone defense. I hope this thing is real, but it feels a little unlikely that it would have a battery pack deep enough to be used more than maybe a few times. Hard to say. Inserted media

U.S. Teledyne FLIR Defense unveiled the Black Recon system, which launches up to three micro-UAVs from armored vehicles or fixed installations for autonomous reconnaissance. These look small enough to be packed in the back of a truck, but not exactly man-portable.

There were a couple of cool health things. First is that MAHA has inverted the food pyramid. They literally turned it upside down. You can see more at realfood.gov. Now, protein is the number one thing people should be eating, while simple carbs are the smallest proportion. It seems to be mostly based on lowering the glycemic index of food, if I were to hazard a guess. Also, 156 schools are now going to start taking the Presidential Fitness Test again, after it was abandoned years ago. I personally think this is a great thing to get kids focused on health once more. Of course, concessions have to be made for the kids who simply cannot do the test, but overall, kids really should be able to do basic things like sit-ups and push-ups, and the only reason they can't is that the schools allow them to be lazy during PE.

In Tech News, OpenAI’s audited financials for 2025 showed $13.07 billion in revenue against $34 billion in costs. Revenue included $867 million from SoftBank and $303 million from Microsoft. There is some tricky accounting going on here that may not actually be the same sort of profit and loss we are accustomed to because they inherit some of the losses from their investors, oddly. I don't claim to be an accountant, but their margins seem okay for now. However, due to the fact that the US government has shut down Fable and Mythos, I wonder how this will hurt them.

First of all, I am seeing at least a few companies starting to monitor costs, even if they aren't freezing them. That's the first step in stopping runaway costs, which was always kind of strange that it was allowed. Secondly, I hear a ton of fear in the market around moving to local models because they can't trust that the likes of Anthropic will be able to continue serving up models if the government can de facto block them simply by saying that none of their users can be foreign nationals. Both of those seem like bad signs for the AI market and moving the direction back towards local/sovereign models that aren't going to stop you from using them on a whim.

A group of cybersecurity executives and engineers sent an open letter to Commerce Secretary Lutnick and National Cyber Director Cairncross urging reversal of export controls on Anthropic’s Fable and Mythos models. They argued that similar exist in other models and that restrictions harm U.S. defenders without meaningful security gains. I could have signed this letter, as someone in cybersecurity at a very high level, but I chose not to. My concern was that it expresses things in the letter that I do not believe to be true - such as that AI is increasing the speed of adversaries. If it were only about stopping regulation in order to prevent other nations from catching up, I would sign it, but ironically, it was making a statement that more or less proves the government's case - that it helps adversaries. Nope! No signature from me. We need to be on top of the AI game.

Now, on the other hand, if you want a glimpse into what real danger looks like, look no further than these guys at IRIS C2. They want to build backdoors into compilers. That just shows where the current state of the art is, and these guys mean business. You should check out their pinned tweet about who they want to hire, while you're at it. Pretty telling that they also need people with TS/SCI in their background.

Lastly, Midjourney developed an ultrasound-based full-body imaging system that scans a person in 60 seconds while standing in shallow water. The device uses half a million sensors and produces MRI-level resolution without radiation or confinement. It was built by a nine-team. They want to get tens of thousands of these things out to the market to get regular scans of people's bodies. Pretty cool, and doesn't use high energy particles to get the data they're after which is really great for people who want regular checkups. Inserted media

Okay, onto the articles!

Geopolitics

The global nuclear landscape is shifting as China is projected to significantly expand its nuclear arsenal by the early 2030s, potentially bringing it in line with the United States and Russia. This evolution comes at a time when the U.S. and Russia lack a nuclear arms control agreement, raising the need for new diplomatic negotiations that must include China as a nuclear superpower.

The U.S. and Russia are currently without a nuclear arms control agreement for the first time in over 20 years.
China's nuclear arsenal is expected to grow to approximately 3,000 warheads by 2030, altering the balance of nuclear power.
Potential future conflicts involving nuclear powers, including North Korea and Iran, could escalate into nuclear warfare.

[RSnake: The only reason to do this is that they fear an all-out escalation. The irony here is that the only country really in danger, other than Taiwan, is actually Russia. Russia should be deeply concerned with the growing military capabilities on its southern flank. China could easily swarm in and take huge swaths of land, and they just might.]

Source: https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2026/06/19/the_complications_that_chinas_build-up_brings_to_nuclear_balance_1189585.html

The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at historically low levels due to the ongoing conflict in Iran, creating a strategic dilemma for policymakers. Although recent agreements have allowed for some resumption of shipping, global supply risks remain elevated, and the ability to respond to future shocks has been compromised by depleted reserves.

The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve has been significantly depleted due to the Iran war.
The U.S. faces challenges in replenishing the reserve while managing ongoing geopolitical tensions and oil supply risks.

[RSnake: Yep, so the straight remaining closed is a good thing for Iran. But keep in mind that this is also really hurting China and Iran. The only country somewhat winning from this is Russia, which gets to sell its oil at high prices.]

Source: https://geopoliticalfutures.com/?p=435964

Israel and Hezbollah have reportedly agreed to a ceasefire, although clashes have continued, resulting in significant casualties. The situation remains tense as both sides express skepticism about the ceasefire's durability, while US efforts to mediate a lasting peace are ongoing amidst widespread violence and loss of life in Lebanon.

A ceasefire has been agreed upon between Israel and Hezbollah following intense airstrikes that killed dozens in Lebanon.
Ongoing violence raises doubts about the ceasefire's effectiveness and complicates US mediation efforts for a lasting peace.

[RSnake: Hezbollah shooting rockets likely will never stop until there are none left.]

Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwyk7kkygj5o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss

A six-year-old Ebola patient in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has been found after being kidnapped from a hospital by armed men. The ongoing Ebola outbreak has resulted in over 230 deaths and nearly 900 cases, with health facilities frequently attacked due to misinformation and fear about the virus. The World Health Organization is intensifying efforts to manage the rapidly evolving outbreak, particularly in areas controlled by the M23 rebel group in North and South Kivu.

The Ebola outbreak in DRC is serious, with more than 230 deaths and nearly 900 cases confirmed.
Attacks on health facilities are occurring as a result of misinformation and fear surrounding Ebola.
Efforts are underway to improve surveillance, contact tracing, and treatment infrastructure amid the ongoing crisis.

[RSnake: Man, these people are idiots. You'd think they'd see everyone dying around them and figure out that maybe they should stay very far away from the sources of infection.]

Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0qyg29wpk2o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss

A mother reported her concerns about her son, Tycen Proper, to local authorities, which prompted an investigation into an alleged plot to conduct an attack against the U.S. government during a UFC event at the White House. Proper, along with others, was charged with conspiracy, attempted murder, and firearms offenses after detailed plans for the attack were discovered on his phone, leading to a nationwide investigation by various federal agencies.

Tycen Proper was charged with conspiracy against the U.S. government.
Detailed plans for an attack during a UFC event at the White House were found on Proper's phone.

[RSnake: Apparently they met up in some TikTok group. They were smart, and likely radicalized there, similar to what happened with the two guys in San Diego, just on the other side of the political spectrum.]

Source: https://abcnews.com/US/mothers-phone-calls-police-helped-uncover-alleged-ufc/story?id=134002352

Central banks around the world are increasingly missing their inflation targets, with the United States' inflation rate at 4.2%, surpassing the Federal Reserve's 2% goal. This trend is not isolated, as numerous central banks, including those in the Eurozone, Australia, Brazil, and the UK, are similarly struggling amid external pressures such as the Iran conflict. The ongoing challenges raise questions about the long-term ability of central banks to manage inflation expectations and maintain economic stability.

Numerous central banks are struggling to meet their inflation targets, with the US inflation level significantly above the desired rate.
External factors, such as global conflicts, are contributing to rising inflation rates and complicating monetary policy.

[RSnake: It's a feature, not a bug. At least that's what all my economic-savvy friends are telling me.]

Source: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=930330

The U.S. government is investigating whether ASML's advanced EUV lithography machines may have been shipped to China, potentially violating export controls. ASML denies any such machine exists in China, emphasizing its internal safeguards and monitoring. This situation raises serious implications for the global semiconductor supply chain and U.S.-China relations.

The U.S. Commerce Secretary is concerned about potential export control violations related to key semiconductor technology.
ASML claims strict measures prevent its technology from reaching unauthorized users in China.
Any evidence of EUV machines in China could significantly impact the dynamics of global advanced semiconductor production.

[RSnake: Without extremely pure quartz, which can only be sourced from the United States, China would have trouble making the chips.]

Source: https://techcrunch.com/?p=3134577

Cybersecurity

Cybersecurity professionals face increasing challenges as the proliferation of cyber threats and the integration of AI complicate their roles. There is a notable shift from full-time chief information security officers (CISOs) to part-time or fractional roles, driven by stress and heavier workloads. Many organizations are also recognizing the need for strategic cybersecurity guidance as they navigate these complexities.

CISOs are experiencing heightened workloads and complexity in their roles due to evolving cyber threats and AI impacts.
A trend is emerging where companies are moving towards fractional CISOs instead of maintaining full-time positions.
The need for strategic cybersecurity advice is increasing as businesses require support to meet regulatory and insurance requirements.

[RSnake: I am not convinced that most companies should have a security team at all. I think it makes more sense to have them outsourced into groups that really know what they're doing. Sorta like how tax accounting isn't core to almost any company's business, neither is security in all but a handful of cases.]

Source: https://www.darkreading.com/cybersecurity-operations/stressors-ai-changes-cybersecurity-teams

Klue, a market intelligence platform, experienced a security breach that allowed attackers to steal OAuth tokens linked to Salesforce environments of multiple organizations. The attackers, identified as the Icarus extortion group, accessed sensitive data from affected companies and threatened to leak the stolen information if a ransom was not paid. Klue confirmed that the incident did not impact its internal content, and they have since revoked affected credentials and engaged cybersecurity experts to address the situation.

Klue confirmed a security incident involving unauthorized access to their integration infrastructure.
Attackers used stolen credentials to access customer Salesforce environments and exfiltrate sensitive data.
The Icarus extortion group publicly claimed responsibility for the attacks and demanded contact through an encrypted messaging platform to prevent data leaks.

[RSnake: I have heard this happening where OAUTH tokens are stolen or replayed and all of the data they were protecting gets stolen.]

Source: https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/security/klue-oauth-breach-victim-list-grows-as-icarus-hackers-claim-attack/

A significant security vulnerability affecting the Gravity SMTP plugin for WordPress is leading to the exploitation of 100,000 sites, allowing attackers to access sensitive information such as API keys and email service credentials. Meanwhile, another critical vulnerability in the Avada Builder plugin could enable remote attackers to delete important files on one million sites if exploited. Both vulnerabilities pose severe risks to WordPress site security and require immediate attention from administrators.

A vulnerability in the Gravity SMTP WordPress plugin allows attackers to exploit unauthenticated access, risking the exposure of sensitive data for numerous sites.
A critical flaw in the Avada Builder plugin could facilitate file deletion on servers, potentially leading to full site takeovers.

[RSnake: It's never the core, it's almost always these stupid plugins. It's one of the reasons I just never use WordPress anymore.]

Source: https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/security/hackers-exploit-info-disclosure-bug-in-gravity-smtp-wordpress-plugin/

The U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) is advising federal agencies to patch a critical vulnerability in Splunk Enterprise that is actively being exploited. This flaw allows unauthorized remote file operations on affected devices, emphasizing the urgency for agencies to secure their systems against potential cyberattacks.

CISA has warned of active exploitation of a vulnerability in Splunk Enterprise.
Federal agencies are required to patch their systems by a specified deadline to mitigate risks.

[RSnake: Splunk is used by nearly all government agencies and large enterprises. Ouch.]

Source: https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/security/cisa-splunk-enterprise-flaw-actively-exploited-patch-by-sunday/

A data breach has exposed VPN credentials for approximately 74,000 Fortinet devices, leading to urgent warnings from the U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) for organizations to secure their networks. The breach, associated with a Russian-speaking threat group, has targeted various government and private sector entities worldwide, potentially compromising sensitive information.

74,000 Fortinet VPN credentials were leaked, prompting urgent security measures.
The breach is linked to a Russian-speaking threat group targeting global organizations.

[RSnake: If you are still using Fortinet, consider a change. Seriously.]

Source: https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/security/cisa-warns-fortinet-users-to-secure-devices-after-fortibleed-leak/

AUR is experiencing a security incident where attackers have compromised several packages, pushing malicious updates that install malware on users' systems. The project has temporarily suspended new user registrations while attempting to respond to the ongoing threats and evaluate long-term security measures.

AUR has been subjected to a sustained attack leading to the installation of malware on users' systems.
New user registration has been halted while the project assesses the security breach and considers significant changes.

[RSnake: These third party packages are a blight on our industry. We need some serious self-policing.]

Source: https://lwn.net/SubscriberLink/1077619/f7b07c5489fdd43a/

Technology

MIT researchers have developed a new technique that utilizes machine learning to accurately model the behavior of metal alloys, improving predictions of material properties even in complex chemical arrangements. This approach addresses existing challenges in simulating disordered chemical structures, aiming to enhance materials innovation and applications across various industries such as aerospace and energy.

A new machine-learning technique has been created to improve the prediction of material properties for metal alloys.
This method enhances the accuracy and efficiency of material simulations by capturing diverse atomic environments.

[RSnake: Fluid dynamic computation is great at all kinds of things, including heated solids, gasses and plasmas. It's no wonder AI is going to play a big role here.]

Source: https://news.mit.edu/2026/better-way-to-model-metal-alloys-behavior-0619

Robert Caskin Prince III, a renowned composer and sound designer for video games, passed away, leaving a significant legacy in the gaming industry. His contributions, particularly to iconic titles like Doom and Wolfenstein 3D, have been recognized as foundational to the evolution of video game music. The soundtrack of Doom was selected for preservation by the Library of Congress, ensuring his work remains a part of American cultural heritage.

Bobby Prince was a pioneering composer in the video game industry.
His work has been acknowledged with a Lifetime Achievement Award and preservation in the Library of Congress.

[RSnake: RIP. I wonder if they tried playing Doom on his casket. Too soon? lol]

Source: https://www.legacy.com/legacy/robert-bobby-prince-lll

Major AI labs are shifting their approach as the U.S. government has implemented its first AI ban due to national security, affecting a leading model over a notable security concern. The focus is now shifting from merely increasing the scale of AI models to ensuring accuracy and real-world applicability, indicating a potential plateau in artificial intelligence capabilities as flawed outputs become more prevalent in larger models.

The U.S. government banned a major AI model due to national security risks.
There is a growing skepticism about the efficacy of simply scaling AI parameters without addressing accuracy and reasoning.

[RSnake: This will almost certainly make companies look good and hard at local models, and building their own, to avoid whatever the government might do against the frontier models. Honestly, I could see this taking a huge dent out of spend in the big frontier model companies. This might be the thing that starts to pierce the bubble. Of course the hardware guys are just fine.]

Source: https://arrowtsx.dev/bigger-models/

HyperLight, a Cambridge startup, has secured an $80 million Series C funding round led by MediaTek, drawing support from major players across the AI-hardware supply chain. The company focuses on thin-film lithium niobate photonics to address the increasing demands for data transfer in large GPU clusters, moving from traditional copper wiring to optical solutions. This investment signals a strong interest in advancing optical technology for AI infrastructure as the industry seeks faster, more efficient data transfer methods.

HyperLight has raised $80 million to develop thin-film lithium niobate technology for faster data transfer in AI networks.
The funding round includes significant players from the AI-hardware supply chain, indicating strong industry backing for optical technology.

[RSnake: I had assumed everyone would be moving to photonics by now, but apparently there is a middle step.]

Source: https://thenextweb.com/news/hyperlight-tfln-photonics-80m-series-c-ai-interconnects

A Paris-based startup named Kyber is developing infrastructure for controlling remote devices with real-time synchronization of video, audio, and sensor data. The platform, which has already raised $5 million in funding, has potential applications across industries, particularly in robotics, drones, and remote IT access. Kyber aims to provide an open-source solution while also offering productized versions for enterprise clients globally.

Kyber is creating a real-time control platform for remote devices that minimizes latency.
The company has secured funding and is targeting various industries including defense and robotics.

[RSnake: I have no doubt that they'll look good and hard at whether this will work for offensive drones too.]

Source: https://techcrunch.com/?p=3134573

Business

Hyundai Motor Group has acquired SoftBank's remaining stake in Boston Dynamics for $325 million, achieving full ownership of the robotics company. This acquisition comes as Boston Dynamics prepares to deploy its Atlas humanoid robot in Hyundai's electric vehicle factory by 2028, amidst growing competition in the humanoid robotics market from companies like Tesla and others.

Hyundai now fully controls Boston Dynamics, marking a strategic shift towards integrating humanoid robots in manufacturing.
SoftBank is redirecting its resources towards AI infrastructure investments, indicating a transition in its business focus.

[RSnake: I am not sure how I feel about a South Korean company owning one of the largest US robotics companies. Even if they are an ally.]

Source: https://startupfortune.com/hyundai-takes-full-control-of-boston-dynamics-as-softbank-exits-for-325-million/

Amazon has decided to drop a nearly finished film about OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, just months after investing $50 billion in OpenAI. The decision comes amidst a complex landscape of financial ties between Amazon and OpenAI, along with Altman's polarizing public persona and ongoing controversies related to the AI industry.

Amazon's $50 billion investment in OpenAI has influenced its decision to drop the film.
The film portrays Sam Altman and Elon Musk unfavorably against the backdrop of recent tensions in the AI space.

[RSnake: See, now I want to watch it. This is the Barbara Streisand effect in action.]

Source: https://thenextweb.com/news/amazon-drops-artificial-sam-altman-openai-film-guadagnino

A U.S. federal court has preliminarily approved a $7.85 million antitrust settlement involving Sony, which alleged that the company monopolized the digital PlayStation games market by restricting competition from third-party retailers. About 4.4 million PlayStation users who purchased eligible digital games between April 2019 and December 2023 will receive compensation, distributed as PlayStation Network wallet credits, following a final approval hearing scheduled for October 15, 2026.

Sony faced allegations of violating antitrust laws by eliminating competition from third-party retailers.
Affected PlayStation users are set to receive compensation through digital wallet credits.

[RSnake: All of these big hardware game companies are a bit shady, IMO.]

Source: https://thenextweb.com/news/sony-playstation-store-7-85-million-antitrust-settlement-digital-games

Jio Platforms, a telecom unit of Reliance Industries, plans to launch an initial public offering (IPO) that could be one of India's largest share sales, aiming to raise approximately $4 billion. This announcement follows a year of anticipation and is seen as a potential test of investor appetite in a volatile market, with expectations that it could positively influence the overall sentiment in India's IPO landscape.

Jio Platforms is expected to raise around $4 billion in its IPO, marking a significant event for India's capital markets.
The IPO comes after Reliance's expansion into areas like artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure, reflecting its growth ambitions.

[RSnake: That's a healthy IPO, but I expect some of the upcoming IPOs to be a bit aenemic due to how much liquidity was sucked into SpaceX.]

Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2kerpkynko?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss

Retail investors are heavily invested in a risky financial product linked to bitcoin, holding approximately $8.8 billion in junk credit labeled as STRC. This investment lacks fundamental backing, carries high dividend obligations that cannot be easily funded, and poses significant risks to its holders, particularly in volatile market conditions.

Retail investors own $8.8 billion worth of STRC, a speculative financial product marketed as safe.
STRC's structure leads to a high probability of default and significant risks in volatile bitcoin markets.

[RSnake: Even as a hedge against the dollar, I'm not so sure it's a good bet. Especially when it's losing value compared to the dollar.]

Source: https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/strc-junk-credit-bitcoin-costume-and-retail-holding-88-billion-it

The Federal Reserve is undergoing significant changes under new Chair Kevin Warsh, moving away from strategies employed since the 2008 financial crisis. This shift emphasizes price stability over investor reassurance, which could alter the approach to monetary policy and its impact on markets and inflation management.

The Fed is seen as potentially ending the practice of providing a safety net for risk assets.
Warsh's leadership marks a shift in focus from supporting markets to prioritizing inflation control.

[RSnake: Stability includes inflation and money printing. I hope they know that.]

Source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-finally-done-rescuing-markets

The U.S. private credit default rate has remained at a record high of 6 percent, with multiple defaults occurring in various sectors, including healthcare and industrial manufacturing. Major investment firms are experiencing client withdrawals, prompting some to cap redemptions to manage liquidity, despite claims that systemic risks remain low compared to past financial crises.

The private credit default rate has reached a record high, indicating troubles within the sector.
Investment firms are capping redemptions due to rising client withdrawal requests, affecting fund liquidity.

[RSnake: It may have been staved off a bit longer - but that bust is still looming. SpaceX did add a lot of money back to the retail investor for now, billions, so that and the Iran MOU may stabilize markets for a while, but debt comes due.]

Source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-private-credit-default-rate-remains-record-high-fitch

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